By: Brett Davidson
IT’S that time of the year again when we do some ‘crystal-balling’ and try and make some bold predictions about how the season is going to pan out.
This year we find five divisions, which is going to make picking winners even harder as there looks to be an incredible evenness over each of the divisions.
Here is my quick synopsis of each division.
Premier
Wow, what a tight division this is going to be. The relegation of East Ringwood and Knox and the inclusions of a host of quality players through all teams means a spot in the finals will be decided on winning what we call ‘8-point’ games.
It is hard to look past Vermont, the current premier. The Eagles have recruited strongly with a mixture of returning club champions (Mullet and Ross) and high-quality midfielders (Honeychurch/Burgess).
While they have lost some solid role players in Davidson/Collopy/Pretto, their inclusions cover these with added interest.
Balwyn has also recruited heavily with a focus on not only top end talent (Richards) but also exciting youth (Monkhorst). Add the return of injured duo in Manuel and Haley and Balwyn will definitely be back at the ‘pointy end’ in 2019. North Ringwood under the tutelage of veteran (he will hate that term) coach, Paris Harvie have recruited strongly with Apeness and McLarty along with Schilling heading their inclusions. The loss of Joyner through injury hurts but they look like a team to ‘watch’.
Blackburn has topped up with talls and few departures which will enable them to control the corridor better in 2019.
Rowville under John Brown again has also recruited strongly with Brolic/Ousley and Giobbi along with livewire forward Hehir. Robinson and Sikora are quality losses but have been adequately covered.
Doncaster has included Batsanis, a quality hard running midfielder as a key inclusion but probably their best recruits are new senior coach Stuart Kemperman and assistant coach Jason Heatley.
Both have premierships as coaches and players, a rare, but valuable commodity. Could it be the 1% that Doncaster needs to take the next step in this division?
Norwood under Marty Pask has looked at a cultural change as a way of improving all aspects of the club. Carroll/O’Sullivan and Johnson are key outs but there seems to be a quiet confidence about the Norseman. Noble Park has spent a year or so reinvigorating all aspects of their club under the guidance of master coach Mick Fogarty and as such, discount them at your peril!
South Croydon have been very quiet over the pre-season. A number of solid mid-range role players have left and the inclusions tend to be based on youth. Hard to read at this stage.
Montrose has lost Schilling and Goodman and have also looked to youth to build its list. In this extremely tough division, the Demons are going to need some luck to push up the ladder.
My ladder predictions:
Vermont
Balwyn
Rowville
Blackburn
Noble Park
North Ringwood
South Croydon
Doncaster
Norwood
Montrose
My main prediction is that there will only be eight points between teams sitting 4th to 9th at season’s end.
Division 1
I thought Premier was tough to analyse, this division is equally so.
The real questions are: How will East Ringwood respond after relegation? Can Knox repeat the relegation/premiership rollercoaster ride of 2016/17? How will Doncaster East recover from the loss of Sam Rowe so late in the pre-season? While there are many other unknowns in this Division, there seems to be a consistent list turnover of quality talent through each team which makes choosing a favourite at this stage very difficult.
Upper Gully has lost Riseley/Smith, Doncaster East- Viojo-Rainbow/Martin/Gordon and Murphy, East Ringwood- Sandric/Tweedie/Urban/Battaglene and Swizboliek, Mooroolbark- Egan/Slattery/Stephens and Georgiou, Lilydale – Harvey, Bayswater- Cunningham/Elkasovic/Moore and Eddy, Park Orchards – Gorringe/Bayliss and Crowle and Wantirna South – Teakel/Edwards/Carboni and Hare.
There is an enormous amount of talent leaving the division but in an ironic twist, this seems to have evened up the competition. There is obviously some quality moving into the division with the stand-out being Phelan at Doncaster East.
What is impressive about this division is the high quality of coaches – Buckle/Madigan (pictured below)/Neagle/Cochrane/Buzaglo have all coached or played in premierships in 1st/2nd division and Perry/Roach have also played in 1st division premierships!!
Picking a ladder is somewhat of a real stab in the dark.
Lilydale
Doncaster East
Knox
UFTG
Wantirna South
East Ringwood
Bayswater
Park Orchards
Croydon
Mooroolbark
It could quite easily end up a reshuffle of teams 3 to 8 and I am left with a complete omelette on my face!!!
Division 2
This division in 2019 proved to be the tightest at the top end with eventual premier, Boronia, coming from third place. The top six were very close with only Ringwood being the statistical standout.
Add the relegated Mulgrave and Mitcham who both had solid back ends to their seasons and this promises to again be a super competitive division. Each team has included some top end players, the telling factor will again be depth in this division.
I think Boronia will again be difficult to beat as they won all three flags in 2019 with a very healthy mixture of exciting youth and mature-bodied role players. The Hawks have added Hare/Miller and Mason, not household names, but solid depth players. Mitcham with the addition of Carroll/O’Sullivan and West has recruited well and should picture in finals if it remains healthy.
The Basin have Davidson/Hallo and Lynch, all top end players but have lost Kruger, a tough, smart inside mid. The two sides with the biggest losses are Ringwood and Scoresby.
Ringwood will be without Ben Power and Trent Farmer (possibility of a late return from overseas), two of the best players in the division and while Brett Rowe will still be bullish about their chances, the loss of Atwell means the best ruckman, forward and a quality mid will be missing in 2019.
Scoresby still has a very strong midfield and solid back half but the loss of Hehir and Hicks means the Magpies have lost 75% of their goalkicking power. Add to this the movement of De Ieso back to Ferntree Gully leaves the club bereft of a ruck as the back-up in Letzing is also missing.
Templestowe has taken a gamble on hoping the extremely talented De Soysa can get back to his best after injury. Heathmont has lost Odermatt/Colombo and Conyers but if new senior coach Kyle Emley can get back to playing after a broken leg then his influence in the midfield could be crucial.
The fixture may have an influence on ladder position as teams will play three teams twice and four teams three times.
Boronia
Mitcham
The Basin
Templestowe
Mulgrave
Scoresby
Ringwood
Heathmont
Three of last year’s top four in the bottom three. A big call but it shows the complete evenness of this division.
Division 3
I think this division may be the easiest to predict….within reason. Both South Belgrave with inclusions of the ilk of Riseley/Odermatt/Smith/Haddock/Porcaro/Willis/Forbes and the return from injury of Stow with Ferntree Gully who have included Currey/Moore/Eddy/De Ieso/Russo/Lovat and Allison look like the two teams to beat.
To be able to recruit such class into the competition augers well for both teams. Pencil in rounds 1, 8 and 15 as these two battle it out.
Round 1 under lights at Ferntree Gully should be a cracker of a game. Don’t discount the likes of Warrandyte with the Grimes brothers x 3 along with great inclusions like Jellie/Hodge and Donahoo or Donvale who have Purcell back from injury and Haig/Jenkin and Lucas as inclusions. Along with Waverley Blues who have only lost Sharpe and who have a number of excellent ready-made 19s from 2018 to bolster their list, these five teams should be the main contenders to battle out for the finals.
I think Chirnside Park will be a big improver with Dave Newlands as its new senior coach. While this is his first gig at a senior role, he has been the right hand man of Paris Harvie at Doncaster East and Mooroolbark. He will have learnt a lot from Paris. Chirnside has had a complete list overhaul and have brought in some very handy Mooroolbark players in the likes of Stephens/Slattery/Egan/Clavant and Higgins.
The 2018 Division 4 grand finalists in Glen Waverley Hawks and Whitehorse Pioneers round out the list. Whitehorse has some excellent juniors but have lost the Mariani brothers, Hockey and Padbury and will find them very hard to replace immediately as well as jump up a division. The Hawks, under new coach Con Borg, have some handy inclusions but the loss of Ferguson will hurt them. The jump in standard may also find them out early in the season.
Ladder prediction:
South Belgrave
Ferntree Gully
Warrandyte
Waverley Blues
Donvale
Chirnside Park
Glen Waverly Hawks
Whitehorse Pioneers
My big prediction is that the top three will only be separated by percentage at the end of the season.
Division 4
While all the divisions will have upsets and teams moving positions often, this division will have the greatest movement of all.
I am very excited by the possibility of seeing the likes of Surrey Park, Fairpark and Silvan all potentially playing finals this season. Remember that these three clubs finished in 7th, 8th and 9th position in 2018.
Silvan under Trent Martin has recruited strongly with Georgiou/Emmett/Kimpton/Hampton and Treeby all excellent inclusions. The Cats’ only loss is Murphy.
Surrey Park has been building under Scott Hamill for the past couple of seasons. The Panthers have tremendous juniors coming through and have some handy senior inclusions with very few departures. The key to Surrey park is its start to the season. If the Cats can get early wins, they could go top three.
Fairpark is the unknown factor in the Division 4 equation. The Lions have lost Hall and De Graaf, two solid players but have included 11 players from Mount Waverley, an SFL 3rd division team. While not all of these are top end, they do have five or six walk up starts. Similar to Surrey Park, if they get going early they could be anything.
East Burwood look like the best chance of a top four lock. The Rams have included the Mariani brothers, Neate/Rennie and Logan to increase their depth. The loss of McGown and Jeffrey will hurt but they were only a sniff away from a grand final spot in 2019, so should be able to continue their rise this season.
Coldstream, under Chad Rogers could also be a team ‘flying under the radar’. Handy role player inclusions, no losses of note and a quality coach….this team will cause headaches during the year.
The two teams to have suffered the greatest setbacks have been Forest Hill and Kilsyth. Kilsyth had a late change of coach due to ill health and has also lost an enormous amount of top-end talent in Currey/Russo/Lovat/Van Florenstein/Fogarty/Benson and Sigersma. Youth and patience are the calls out of the Kilsyth camp, which seems the right approach.
Forest Hill has also had an exodus of top end quality with the likes of Burger/Burmeister/Johnston/Mowat/Ousley/Pincott/Ziegerink and Davis either moving on or retiring. Justin Scicluna has had time as an assistant coach to map out the path for the new Forest Hill…there may be some pain early but I believe the path is the correct one.
The final two clubs in this division are Nunawading and the new inclusion of Croydon North MLOC. Nunawading will be searching for improvement again, something that has occurred in each year of Paul Beven’s reign. The Lions have recruited players from all over the state, hopefully they will cover the big losses of Bogdan/Haig and Davis. It would not surprise me to hear that the club song is sung for the first time in four years at 5pm during the 2019 season. The new kids on the block are a complete unknown and as such, I find it hard to know where they sit. Their final position is a mystery but I think they may find this a baptism of fire.
Ladder prediction:
East Burwood
Silvan
Surrey Park
Fairpark
Coldstream
Forest Hill
Kilsyth
Nunawading
Croydon North-MLOC
My prediction is that you will be able to ‘throw a blanket’ over positions two to five and that the Round 18 clash between Fairpark and East Burwood will decide the final ladder placings.
Well, it is one day till kick off….in 18 or so weeks I will be either walking around with a smug look on my face or I will be holed up in a tent in Mallacoota, hiding away from the ridicule from my peers, who I am sure will constantly remind me of my failure. Whatever the outcome, 2019 looks to be a fascinatingly even, tough and exciting competition. This is just what the EFL wanted when the move to five divisions was mooted.
Bring it on!
All views expressed in this article remain those of the author and not necessarily of the EFL or its affiliated clubs.
