As we approach the final stretch of the Senior Men’s Home and Away season, Media Manager Ryan Long takes a look at each club’s run home and predicts how the first week of the finals series may shape up.
Premier Division Run Home
- East Ringwood (12-2, 152.36%)
Run Home
R15: Berwick (A)
R16: Norwood (A)
R17: Rowville (H)
R18: Vermont (H)
Rowville’s loss on the weekend was handy for the Roos.
Expect that the only side that could realistically knock them off the top of the ladder now is Balwyn who boosted their percentage on the weekend. However, it’s all in their hands, keep winning and they won’t have to worry about that.
Have an opportunity themselves to earn some percentage back over the next fortnight against the bottom two sides in the division.
Predicted Finish: 1st
- Balwyn (11-3, 164.73%)
Run Home
R15: Doncaster East (A)
R16: South Croydon (H)
R17: Noble Park (H)
R18: Blackburn (A)
Snapping a three-game losing streak and regaining some percentage, the Tigers had a solid weekend.
To finish on top, they likely will need to win all four games on the run home and wait for an East Ringwood slip-up which may come in Round 17 against the Hawks?
Focusing on their own run home, the Tigers may enter as favourites in all four games but most of them will certainly be challenging. Doncaster East gave Vermont a big scare, the Dogs beat the Hawks last weekend and Blackburn are likely entering Round 18 needing a win to play finals, so they’ll need to be at their best over the next month.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
- Rowville (10-4, 137.94%)
Run Home
R15: Blackburn (H)
R16: Doncaster East (H)
R17: East Ringwood (A)
R18: Noble Park (A)
The Dogs have had the Hawks covered in 2024, two wins from two meetings.
What does it mean for Rowville?
The Minor Premiership is essentially off the cards unless the Roos and Tigers both fall apart over the next month. A top three finish is still the most likely outcome but if they drop this weekend’s game to Blackburn, they open the door for the sides below them.
Expect the reigning premiers to bounce back right away and move closer to a Qualifying Final at Bayswater Oval.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
- Vermont (9-5, 112.55%)
Run Home
R15: South Croydon (A)
R16: Berwick (H)
R17: Norwood (H)
R18: East Ringwood (A)
More than a few nervous Eagles fans at Three Quarter Time on Saturday, before the side kicked seven last quarter goals to beat Doncaster East.
A loss would have been disastrous, combined with South Croydon’s win over Rowville. They now meet the Dogs at Cheong Park which should be a great match-up between the two clubs.
Win this and they’ll almost certainly play for finals here, with their following two weeks against the bottom two sides of the division.
Lose? They’ll be hoping Rowville beats Blackburn or suddenly they’re sixth, a game behind the Dogs and a lot of percentage behind Blackburn.
Twelve wins will get there them.
Predicted Finish: 5th
- South Croydon (9-5, 107.36%)
Run Home
R15: Vermont (H)
R16: Balwyn (A)
R17: Berwick (A)
R18: Doncaster East (H)
The biggest win of their season thus far, eases a bit of pressure on this week’s Match of the Round clash with the Eagles.
Still so much on the line, win and they should make it, assuming they finish with two wins from their last three games. As mentioned above, a loss here and a Blackburn win, means the Dogs will be back to sixth, made even tougher with a trip to Balwyn the following week.
The most important thing for South Croydon is that last weekend’s win has put their destiny in their own hands, now they just have to keep it in their control.
Predicted Finish: 4th
- Blackburn (8-6, 150.29%)
Run Home
R15: Rowville (A)
R16: Noble Park (H)
R17: Doncaster East (A)
R18: Balwyn (H)
Tough week for the Burners, didn’t play and they were bounced out of the top-four and into sixth.
Percentage is key. Win this week and they’re back in the top five unless the Eagles and Dogs have a draw.
A loss would mean Blackburn will need to win all three of their remaining games which includes a Round 18 clash with Balwyn.
It’s their biggest week of the 2024 season, never easy coming away from Seebeck Oval with four-points, they’re going to need to be at their absolute best.
Predicted Finish: 6th
7.Doncaster East (5-9, 86.92%)
Run Home
R15: Balwyn (H)
R16: Rowville (A)
R17: Blackburn (H)
R18: South Croydon (A)
Proved on the weekend that they’ll be a danger game for every side on their run home.
Every single opponent in their next month has something to play for so the Lions can still cause plenty of havoc with a win or two.
Predicted Finish: 7th
- Noble Park (4-10, 94.15%)
Run Home
R15: Norwood (H)
R16: Blackburn (A)
R17: Balwyn (A)
R18: Rowville (H)
Just four more games to go for the Bulls who are limping to the finish line now.
Lost to Norwood earlier this season so back on their home ground, they’ll be eager to make amends this weekend.
Predicted Finish: 8th
- Berwick (1-13, 43.26%)
Run Home
R15: East Ringwood (H)
R16: Vermont (A)
R17: South Croydon (H)
R18: Norwood (A)
As spoken about last week, we look set for a Round 18 relegation battle between Berwick and Norwood at Mullum Mullum Reserve.
Three tough games before Round 18 make it very difficult to see where a win would come before Norwood. Even if Norwood pinch a win before that clash, with a better percentage, a win in the final round of the season would still be enough to see Berwick survive another year in the Premier Division competition.
Predicted Finish: 9th
- Norwood (1-12, 38.69%)
Run Home
R15: Noble Park (A)
R16: East Ringwood (H)
R17: Vermont (A)
R18: Berwick (H)
As mentioned above, it’s probable that Norwood face Berwick in a relegation battle in the final round of the Home and Away season.
Having beat Noble Park once, next weekend’s clash might be an opportunity to move back into ninth. But with a percentage of just 38.96%, Round 18 would likely remain as a must-win game to stay in Premier.
Predicted Finish: 10th
Predicted First Week of Premier Division Finals:
BYE: East Ringwood (1)
Qualifying Final: Balwyn (2) v Rowville (3) @Bayswater Oval
Elimination Final: South Croydon (4) v Vermont (5) @Jubilee Park
Division One Run Home
- Park Orchards (14-1, 148.41%)
Run Home
R16: Bayswater (A)
R17: Doncaster (A)
R18: Mitcham (H)
Found a way on the weekend, impressing once again.
One more win to officially crown themselves as Minor Premiers, expect them to get there this upcoming weekend.
Still all eyes on their final game of the season against the Tigers after Mitcham put them away earlier in the year at Walker Park.
Predicted Finish: 1st
- Mitcham (11-4, 140.75%)
Run Home
R16: North Ringwood (A)
R17: Beaconsfield (H)
R18: Park Orchards (A)
That’s now ten wins from their last eleven outings.
Key players returning to the side, Mitcham are building towards another finals run. Beaconsfield’s loss on the weekend means both the Tigers and Saints are now two games clear of fourth.
Two wins out of three secure the double chance, two losses and the Tigers would be relying on their percentage which may come down to the wire.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
- South Belgrave (11-4, 134.08%)
Run Home
R16: Wantirna South (H)
R17: Bayswater (A)
R18: North Ringwood (H)
As mentioned above, the Eagles one-point loss to Park Orchards has them safe inside the top-three.
A nice percentage booster on the weekend is also handy for the Saints. They play three of the bottom four to finish the season, can’t see them losing any of those clashes.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
- Montrose (9-6, 137.47%)
Run Home
R16: Mooroolbark (H)
R17: North Ringwood (A)
R18: Wantirna South (A)
Winning all remaining three games is an absolute must from here but they’ll be relying on either Mitcham or South Belgrave to drop two games on the run home.
The difference between a Qualifying Final and an Elimination is massive, particularly considering that the Eagles have had the Dees measure this season.
Predicted Finish: 4th
- Beaconsfield (9-6, 122.05%)
Run Home
R16: Doncaster (H)
R17: Mitcham (A)
R18: Bayswater (H)
Heartbreaker.
Knocking off the Sharks would have opened up the possibilities of a double chance. Now two games behind with an unfavourable percentage, even three wins from the last three weeks won’t be enough to elevate Beaconsfield from an Elimination Final.
Having defeated Montrose twice this year which would likely be their opposition, they won’t fear that match-up.
Prediction: 5th
6. Mooroolbark (7-8, 77.29%)
Run Home
R16: Montrose (A)
R17: Wantirna South (H)
R18: Doncaster (A)
If they were ever a chance before the weekend, they aren’t now.
Can rule a line through the Mustangs finals chances, two games and percentage behind fifth. Even a second win over Montrose will still have them a game and percentage behind the Demons.
A terrific rivalry between the two clubs so still plenty to play for, can end the Demons’ hopes of a double chance with another upset win.
Predicted Finish: 6th
- North Ringwood (5-10, 90.03%)
Run Home
R16: Mitcham (H)
R17: Montrose (H)
R18: South Belgrave (A)
Back to back wins for the Saints will give their fans a bit to celebrate as they head into the final three weeks of their season – All tough opposition.
Prediction: 7th
- Bayswater (5-10, 80.11%)
Run Home
R16: Park Orchards (H)
R17: South Belgrave (H)
R18: Beaconsfield (A)
Similar to North Ringwood’s run home, three very difficult match up’s to finish off season 2024.
Won eight games last year, hard to see them matching that now.
Prediction: 8th
9. Doncaster (3-12, 60.85%)
Run Home
R16: Beaconsfield (H)
R17: Park Orchards (H)
R18: Mooroolbark (H)
North Ringwood’s defeat of Wantirna South makes it extremely unlikely for a late charge to avoid relegation, which would see the Sharks live another day in Division One.
Prediction: 9th
10. Wantirna South (1-14, 63.39%)
Run Home
R16: South Belgrave (A)
R17: Mooroolbark (A)
R18: Montrose (H)
As we mentioned last week, the side has been a lot more competitive in the second half of the year. But unfortunately for Wantirna South, they have just the one win to show from it.
Prediction: 10th
Predicted First Week of Division One Finals:
BYE: Park Orchards (1)
Qualifying Final: South Belgrave (2) v Mitcham (3) @Tormore Reserve
Elimination Final: Montrose (4) v Beaconsfield (5) @Tormore Reserve
Division Two Run Home
- Boronia (14-1, 263.90%)
Run Home
R16: Heathmont (A)
R17: The Basin (A)
R18: Ringwood (H)
Saturday’s win wasn’t pretty by any means but it did officially lock in a second-consecutive Minor Premiership in Division Two.
The interest in two of their final three games come with the opposition they play, Ringwood and Heathmont both fighting for a finals spot. A win over the Jets this weekend would officially knock them out of the finals race.
Predicted Finish: 1st
- Croydon (10-5, 136.64%)
Run Home
R16: Mulgrave (H)
R17: Waverley Blues (A)
R18: Heathmont (H)
No harm done after Saturday’s loss with both the Waverley Blues and Mulgrave dropping games on the weekend. Factor in percentage, it’s a two-game gap between the Blues and the two sides below them.
They so happen to play both those sides in the next fortnight, just one win from those two games will be enough to consolidate the double chance.
Form line suggests they’re the biggest contender to the Hawks.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
- Waverley Blues (9-6, 95.73%)
Run Home
R16: Lilydale (A)
R17: Croydon (H)
R18: The Basin (H)
Time for a bit of concern after the Waverley Blues lost their fourth game from their last five outings. Again, they struggled to hit the scoreboard which has resulted in another percentage drop.
However, the Lions missed a guilt edge opportunity to pass them, so the Blues remain in the top three for another weekend.
Expect they may still get there with 11 wins unless the Lions can win out so two wins against Lilydale and The Basin would give them their best opportunity to hold their spot in third.
Still tipping them this weekend but massive danger game against Lilydale at the LSO.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
- Mulgrave (9-5, 93.59%)
Run Home
R16: Croydon (A)
R17: Ringwood (A)
R18: Templestowe (H)
Frustrating afternoon for the Lions on Saturday, giving up a 28-point lead by Quarter Time, one they were never able to reel in. Add to the frustration, another 5.15 scoreline.
With the Waverley Blues loss to Templestowe, the Lions missed an opportunity to snatch third spot. Two wins from their last three, they’ll be a chance for the double, three wins and it’s likely theirs unless Waverley can win out.
Four games to finish the season against sides they’re competing with to make finals and or the double chance. Two wins out of four and they’ll be looking at a second consecutive Elimination Final, three or more and the double chance is well in range.
Considering they play 5th and 6th in their run home, a complete drop of form, losing both those clashes would suddenly put their finals chances in jeopardy.
Difficult to predict the result of their final three games of the season.
Predicted Finish: 4th
- Templestowe (8-7, 111.74%)
Run Home
R16: East Burwood (A)
R17: Lilydale (H)
R18: Mulgrave (A)
The Dockers are back inside the top five by 1.73%!
Can’t underestimate how important their victory was on the weekend. Carl Giovannini being moved up forward and finishing with a bag of seven paid off in spades.
A loss and Templestowe’s season would have been on a knife’s edge, but the win along with Waverley and Mulgrave’s losses suddenly reopens the idea of a top-three chance.
An easier run home than Ringwood has the Dockers favoured for that fifth spot, the final game of the season against Mulgrave may also have a lot on the line, but it’s probably still too early to be worrying about that.
Still need to beat who’s in front of them over the next fortnight.
Predicted Finish: 5th
- Ringwood (8-7, 110.11%)
Run Home
R16: The Basin (A)
R17: Mulgrave (H)
R18: Boronia (A)
Four points is what counts, and they secured that with a win over Lilydale. But Templestowe’s big win over the Waverley Blues knocks the Redbacks back to sixth on the ladder.
What does this mean for Ringwood?
With percentage so close, two wins from three might not be enough to finish fifth. If both Ringwood and Templestowe win their next two games, it all comes down to the final round of the season which sees Ringwood meeting the reigning premiers at Tormore Reserve, not the ideal opponent with finals on the line.
There is a scenario where both sides make it but it does rely on either Mulgrave or the Waverley Blues collapsing in the final three weeks of the season.
They won’t worry about the results around them just yet, their focus will be one week at a time, starting with the Bears at Batterham Reserve.
Predicted Finish: 6th
- Heathmont (7-8, 95.16%)
Run Home
R16: Boronia (H)
R17: East Burwood (H)
R18: Croydon (A)
Still mathematically alive.
Unfortunately for the Jets, their win didn’t help their chances as much as it would have with Ringwood and Templestowe both pulling off wins. Percentage below 100 also makes things challenging, they could win out and still miss from here.
Massive ask from here, particularly with Boronia coming to H.E Parker Reserve this Saturday, looking to put an end to the Jets season.
Been a great turnaround but finals still appear to be a bridge too far.
Predicted Finish: 7th
- Lilydale (5-10, 70.72%)
Run Home
R16: Waverley Blues (H)
R17: Templestowe (A)
R18: East Burwood (H)
Real chance to cause some havoc in the next fortnight with both the Waverley Blues and Templestowe desperate for wins.
Predicted Finish: 8th
- East Burwood (5-10, 69.55%)
Run Home
R16: Templestowe (H)
R17: Heathmont (A)
R18: Lilydale (H)
Similar to Lilydale, an upset over Templestowe this weekend would throw a spanner in the works. Seems unlikely.
Predicted Finish: 9th
- The Basin (0-15, 51.28%)
Run Home
R16: Ringwood (H)
R17: Boronia (H)
R18: Waverley Blues (A)
They’ll be disappointed with their performance on the weekend, just two goals for the afternoon. Back at Batterham Reserve this weekend with the Redbacks playing for their season.
Predicted Finish: 10th
Predicted First Week of Premier Division Finals:
BYE: Boronia (1)
Qualifying Final: Croydon (2) v Waverley Blues (3) @Walker Park
Elimination Final: Mulgrave (4) v Ringwood (5) @Walker Park
Division Three Run Home
- Donvale (15-1, 180.70%)
Run Home
R17: Silvan (A)
R18: Fairpark (H)
Back on the winners list this weekend with another boost of their percentage, jumping an extra five percent.
A trip to Silvan Recreation Reserve and the four points would officially guarantee that they finish as this year’s Minor Premiers.
Predicted Finish: 1st
- Surrey Park (13-3, 170.23%)
Run Home
R17: Oakleigh District (H)
R18: Upper FTG (A)
With Coldstream’s loss, the Panthers are now two games and percentage ahead of fourth so they’re a lock for the Qualifying Final.
The Coldstream loss also plays a factor in who they’ll play first week of the finals. Hard to see Knox dropping either of their next two games based off their current form, that would mean a Surrey Park/Knox Qualifying Final.
Arguably a tougher match-up, having lost to Knox a month ago. but it’s fair to say that the Panthers now have a much stronger side on the field than they did the last time the two sides met.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
- Knox (11-5, 143.25%)
Run Home
R17: Ferntree Gully (A)
R18: Warrandyte (H)
The double chance is now theirs to lose!
Thanks to Ferntree Gully’s upset win over Coldstream, the Falcons have moved into third position with a healthier percentage than the Cougars.
Heading into the weekend, we expected Knox to win all three games but still finish fourth due to Coldstream’s run home. The upset at Wally Tew Reserve has changed their fortunes and if they can continue this momentum, they’ll earn the double chance and book a date with Surrey Park in the Qualifying Final.
In saying all of that, the one side that did the Falcons a favour last weekend is the side they now meet this Saturday. Cannot afford the same slip-up at Wally Tew Reserve.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
- Coldstream (11-5, 126.24%)
Run Home
R17: Fairpark (A)
R18: Silvan (H)
That one hurts.
Now relying on two wins to finish the season and have Knox make the same slip-up at Wally Tew Reserve this week that the Cougars made.
Tied on wins, the other scenario is overtaking them on percentage – difficult to see, particularly when Knox faces Warrandyte at home in the final round of the season.
Predicted Finish: 4th
- Oakleigh District (7-9, 88.21%)
Run Home
R17: Surrey Park (Away)
R18: Ferntree Gully (Home)
As we mentioned last week, a loss to Knox isn’t the worst case scenario for their finals chances, the only side realistically left in the running below them is now Ferntree Gully.
All Oakleigh District need is one more win, which is tough this weekend with a trip to Surrey Park Reserve. However, if Knox defeats Ferntree Gully, they should be safe with the percentage gap between the two teams.
Worst case scenario for Oakleigh is a loss, combined with a second consecutive Ferntree Gully win – Would set up a Round 18 Elimination Final between the two clubs at Princes Highway Reserve.
Predicted Finish: 5th
- Ferntree Gully (6-10, 80.13%)
Run Home
R17: Knox (H)
R18: Oakleigh District (A)
They couldn’t… could they?
We said last week that either a loss to Coldstream or an Oakleigh District win would put the final nail in the coffin. Neither of those eventuated as Ferntree Gully defeated Coldstream in a low-scoring battle at home and Oakleigh District were comfortably taken care of by Knox.
The equation remains interesting with Ferntree Gully’s trip to Oakleigh in the final round of the season. As mentioned above, for that game to be a finals decider, Ferntree Gully must defeat Knox and Oakleigh District must lose to Surrey Park.
As great of a victory that was on the weekend, to repeat the same feat against an in-form Knox will be their biggest challenge yet. Consistency hasn’t be there this year so back-to-back wins against two top-five sides would be a big ask.
Predicted Finish: 6th
- Fairpark (5-11, 83.86%)
Run Home
R17: Coldstream (H)
R18: Donvale (A)
Final two games of the Sean Stanton era, both against top four sides in Coldstream and Donvale.
The Lions are still capable of pulling off an upset, they would love to send out Sean on a high!
Predicted Finish: 8th
- Upper Ferntree Gully (5-11, 76.71%)
Run Home
R17: Warrandyte (A)
R18: Surrey Park (H)
As mentioned last week, that was their last roll of the dice.
Since then, the club have announced that Mark Fisher will not continue into 2025 so it now becomes an interesting off-season for the club as they assess their options and see what needs to improve to be a top-five finals side again.
Predicted Finish: 8th
- Silvan (5-11, 72.06%)
Run Home
R17: Donvale (H)
R18: Coldstream (A)
Another solid win on the weekend, despite their ladder position, still a lot of positives to take from season 2024 with a different looking list.
Predicted Finish: 9th
- Warrandyte (2-14, 49.87%)
Run Home
R17: Upper Ferntree Gully (H)
R18: Knox (A)
Unfortunately for Warrandyte, they’ll finish tenth which means relegation at the end of the 2024 season.
Predicted Finish: 10th
Predicted First Week of Division Three Finals:
BYE: Donvale (1)
Qualifying Final: Surrey Park (2) v Knox (3) @Jubilee Park
Elimination Final: Coldstream (4) v Oakleigh District (5) @Jubilee Park
Division Four Run Home
- Scoresby (11-3, 196.93%)
Run Home
R17: Whitehorse (H)
R18: BYE
R19: Forest Hill (A)
As even as the top four has been this season, the last couple of weeks have seen that be split right down the middle.
Scoresby’s clinical win over Kilsyth and Whitehorse’s loss to Chirnside Park all but seals a top-two finish for the Magpies. Even a loss this weekend to Whitehorse won’t impact their chances unless the Magpies would drop their final game of the season to the Zebras.
They’re yet to beat Chirnside Park in 2024 which is likely their Semi Final opponent, but they’re playing some outstanding footy at the right time of year so we’re set for an enormous first week of the finals.
Predicted Finish: 1st
- Chirnside Park (11-3, 137.95%)
Run Home
R17: Nunawading (A)
R18: Forest Hill (H)
R19: BYE
It was an eight-point game, and the Panthers passed the test with flying colours, essentially locking up the double chance.
A win over the Lions and a Pioneers loss to Scoresby this upcoming weekend would officially cement their spot in the top two.
Have now defeated each top four side at least twice across the season and the Panthers are likely to enter a Semi Final off the back of eight wins in a row.
Predicted Finish: 2nd
- Whitehorse (9-4, 145.78%)
Run Home
R17: Scoresby (A)
R18: Croydon North MLOC (H)
R19: Kilsyth (H)
A loss that almost rules them out of a top two finish, it was the typical eight-point game.
To avoid an Elimination Final, three wins are essential, while also needed Chirnside Park lto ose to Nunawading or Forest Hill, or have Scoresby go winless from their last two matches. Either scenario seems too far-fetched for the Pioneers.
A top-four is a different feel to a top-five however, so a third-place finish isn’t disastrous but they’ll need a flawless three weeks in the finals.
Predicted Finish: 3rd
- Kilsyth (8-5, 126.22%)
Run Home
R17: Croydon North MLOC (H)
R18: Nunawading (H)
R19: Whitehorse (A)
Concerned about their chances this year after a 75-point thumping at home against Scoresby.
Have the next three weeks to re-find some form heading into the finals. Will likely meet Whitehorse two weeks in a row, round 18 clash at Springfield Park, followed by a Sunday Semi Final.
Predicted Finish: 4th
- Croydon North MLOC (3-10, 64.90%)
Run Home
R17: Kilsyth (H)
R18: Whitehorse (A)
R19: Nunawading (A)
Great win on the weekend, their third of the season which sees the KangaRams move into fifth place on the ladder.
Predicted Finish: 5th
- Forest Hill (3-11, 53.04%)
Run Home
R17: BYE
R18: Chirnside Park (A)
R19: Scoresby (H)
Opportunity for a rest this weekend before two tough games against Chirnside Park and Scoresby to round out the 2024 season.
Predicted Finish: 6th
- Nunawading (2-11, 57.75%)
Run Home
R17: Chirnside Park (H)
R18: Kilsyth (A)
R19: Croydon North MLOC (H)
As mentioned last week, massive game to finish the season against the KangaRams, a potential opportunity to jump off the bottom of the ladder.
Predicted Finish: 7th
Predicted First Week of Division Four Finals:
Qualifying Final: Scoresby (1) v Chirnside Park (2) @Bayswater Oval
Elimination Final: Whitehorse (3) v Kilsyth (4) @East Ringwood Reserve
