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Yarra Valley Water | The Run Home

As we approach the final stretch of the Home and Away season, Media Manager Ryan Long takes a look at each club’s run home and predicts how the first week of the finals series may shape up.

Premier Division Run Home

  1. Vermont

44 points (11 wins, 3 losses), 152.20 per cent

Ten wins from their last eleven games have the Eagles in the box seat to earn the double chance.

The Eagles claimed the biggest win from any senior men’s side on the weekend, thrashing the Sharks and adding an extra 20 per cent to their total!

What it now means for the famous club? Three more wins would guarantee a top-two finish, but even two should be enough to get them there.

Huge match this weekend against East Ringwood, who defeated the Eagles by 91 points earlier this year. A phenomenal turnaround since then. Win that one and they will have officially beaten every other current top-six side.

The run home

 R15: East Ringwood (H)

 R16: Park Orchards (A)

 R17: Noble Park (H)

 R18: Doncaster East (A)

Projected Finish: 1st 

2. Rowville

40 points (10 wins, 4 losses), 140.73 per cent

A big win away from home at East Ringwood Reserve has the Hawks in line for a second consecutive top-two finish. 

Strong percentage and the best run-home of the top six teams. However, the two sides below them in Balwyn and East Ringwood will be hot on their heels all the way through to Round 18 so an upset loss this weekend would probably have them back out of the top-two again. 

Final game against Doncaster is likely another percentage booster so I can’t see either the Tigers or the Roos catching them on that front. 

Tipping them to win four from four.

The run home

 R15: South Croydon (A)

 R16: Noble Park (H)

 R17: Blackburn (H)

 R18: Doncaster (A)

Projected Finish: 2nd 

3. Balwyn

40 points (10 wins, 4 losses), 128.70 per cent

At their best, I believe they can win all four of their remaining games, but they’ve got two 50-50 games against the Lions and Bulls, two sides they previously lost to.

We saw how important the top-two finish was for the Bulls and Hawks last year, so the Tigers will be well aware of that. 

As well as their own form, they’ll be paying close attention to the Eagles, Hawks and Roos, particularly this week’s Vermont-East Ringwood game.

The run home

 R15: Berwick (A)

 R16: Doncaster East (H)

 R17: Park Orchards (H)

 R18: Noble Park (A)

Projected Finish: 4th 

4. East Ringwood

40 points (10 wins, 4 losses), 122.64 per cent

Two losses and one get-out-of-jail win for the Roos in their last three matches has East Ringwood sitting fourth on percentage. However, they probably have the second most favourable draw of any of the top six sides, behind Rowville. 

The toughest of the remaining four is this weekend’s clash against the Eagles. If they do manage to leave with the win, it certainly won’t be by the same margin as earlier this year. But winning that will be their best opportunity of making the top two. Lose, and they’re looking at a third to fifth finish. 

 R15: Vermont (A)

 R16: Berwick (H)

 R17: Norwood (H)

 R18: Blackburn (A)

Projected Finish: 3rd  

5. Doncaster East

36 points (9 wins, 5 losses), 128.30 per cent

Still not out of the discussion of a top-two finish considering how many times the top six sides have moved around.

However, for that to happen, they’ll likely need to win out, while the sides above them all take points from each other. 

Considering the percentage gap between the Lions and the current top two, it’s probably out of their reach. 

The run home

 R15: Norwood (H)

 R16: Balwyn (A)

 R17: Berwick (A)

R18: Vermont (H)

Projected Finish: 5th 

6. Noble Park

32 points (8 wins, 6 losses), 117.79 per cent

Loss on the weekend to Berwick wasn’t as costly as what it could have been since Park Orchards knocked off Blackburn, meaning they’re still a game and percentage clear from dropping out of the top six.

It also so happens to be that they now take on Park Orchards this weekend. A must-game win for the club with three difficult games to finish the Home and Away season.

9 wins with their percentage may ultimately be enough but they’ll be looking for at least ten or eleven while finding a way to build some form ahead of the finals. 

The run home                                                                                                                                                                                                                            R15: Park Orchards (H)

 R16: Rowville (H)

 R17: Vermont (A)

 R18: Balwyn (H)

Projected Finish: 6th 

7. Blackburn

28 points (7 wins, 6 losses), 107.86 per cent

Berwick’s favour of knocking off Noble Park was null and void for Blackburn who let a game slip to the Sharks. 

Must win the next two games and hope other sides continue to help them out by knocking off the reigning premiers. 

An extremely hard fortnight to finish the year, means the Burners are going to have to make it against the odds. Think they missed their big opportunity on the weekend.

The run home

 R15: Doncaster (A)

 R16: South Croydon (H)

 R17: Rowville (A)

 R18: East Ringwood (H)

Projected Finish: 7th 

8. Berwick

24 points (6 wins, 8 losses), 89.19 per cent

Arguably one of their best wins since joining the league. Just a few weeks ago, they were needing to knock off the Sharks to stay out of relegation territory. 

Four wins in a row suddenly have them in eighth place. Tough next few weeks with Park Orchards to finish the year, who could be desperate for one more win to avoid relegation.

The run home

 R15: Balwyn (H)

 R16: East Ringwood (A)

 R17: Doncaster East (H)

R18: Park Orchards (A)

Projected Finish: 9th 

9. Norwood

20 points (5 wins, 9 losses), 90.24 per cent

Not in relegation talk, but also not in finals contention. Norwood will go in favourites in two of their last four games. 

They’ll be one side Doncaster East and East Ringwood will certainly be cautious of, they can still shape who finishes where inside the top six by pulling off an upset or two. 

The run home

 R15: Doncaster East (A)

 R16: Doncaster (H)

 R17: East Ringwood (A)

 R18: South Croydon (H)

Projected Finish: 8th 

10.Park Orchards

16 points (4 wins, 11 losses), 78.29 per cent

Needed an upset and they got one! 

Tricky run home but Noble Park may be vulnerable so if they pinch a win there, it might be a gap too far for South Croydon to manage. 

If South Croydon defeat Doncaster as we predict, the Sharks will need to win at least one of their final four games to secure their place in the division next year due to the percentage difference. 

The run home

 R15: Noble Park (A)

 R16: Vermont (H)

 R17: Balwyn (A)

 R18: Berwick (H)

Projected Finish: 11th 

 11. South Croydon

12 points (3 wins, 11 losses), 80.50 per cent

No one had predicted this at the start of the season, the Dogs sitting eleventh with four rounds to go. 

Their long injury list and depth have been a big issue for the club in 2023, but still believe they can do enough to survive in Premier Division. Park Orchard’s win over Blackburn on the weekend stings but the Sharks have a very tough run home so it is possible that they’ll finish on four wins.

Tough game this weekend but some winnable games in the last three weeks. South Croydon still lead Park Orchards on percentage so it may only take one more win to get there if the Sharks aren’t able to cause an upset in their remaining four.

The run home

 R15: Rowville (H)

 R16: Blackburn (A)

 R17: Doncaster (H)

 R18: Norwood (A)

Projected Finish: 10th

12. Doncaster

4 points (1 win, 13 losses), 34.65 per cent

Four games to finish out the year for the Sharks.

There will be at least a couple of sides above that would be very happy if Doncaster was able to pull off some upsets on the run home. 

The run home

 R15: Blackburn (H)

 R16: Norwood (A)

 R17: South Croydon (A)

R18: Rowville (H)

Projected Finish: 12th

Premier Division Predicted First Week of the Finals:

BYE: Vermont, Rowville

Elimination Final (3v6): East Ringwood v Noble Park @Bayswater Oval

Elimination Final (4v5): Balwyn v Doncaster East @Jubilee Park

Division One Run Home

  1. South Belgrave

52 points (15 wins, 0 losses), 145.34 per cent

What a run it’s been for the Saints, have not lost a single game all year, after their promotion to Division One. 

Minor Premiership locked in, the Saints will have the first week of the finals off before likely playing either Mitcham or Montrose in the Semi-Final. 

The run home

 R16: Mooroolbark (A)

 R17: Lilydale (H)                                                                                                      

R18: Croydon (A)

Predicted Finish: 1st 

2. Mitcham

44 points (11 wins, 4 losses), 131.09 per cent

The Tigers are certainties to make it to back-to-back Qualifying Finals.

We’re almost certain they’ll be meeting Montrose in the first week of the finals, which probably isn’t their ideal option due to their current five-game losing streak to the Demons, making them their bogey side. However, they had a similar history with Mooroolbark last year before belting them in the Qualifying Final.

The Tigers look the side most likely to knock off the undefeated South Belgrave unit.

The run home

 R16: Croydon (H)

 R17: Mooroolbark (H)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Bayswater (A)

Predicted Finish: 2nd 

3. Montrose

42 points (10 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw), 134.80 per cent

The Draw on the weekend doesn’t overly impact the Demons, they’re still two and a half games clear of the Eagles in fourth. They can still finish in second but either way, it wouldn’t make a difference to their opponent in the first week of the finals.

The only way they could fall to fourth would be to lose their last three games while the Beaconsfield make it three from three. 

A win this weekend and they can look ahead to a finals clash with Mitcham.

The run home

 R16: Beaconsfield (H)

 R17: Croydon (A)                                                                                                                                  

R18: Mooroolbark (H)

Predicted Finish: 3rd

4. Beaconsfield

32 points (8 wins, 7 losses), 106.22 per cent

Defeating Wantirna South on the weekend means it’s much less of a log jam for those final two spots in the top five. The Eagles are now two games clear in fourth, high chance they may be getting a look at their opponent in the first week of the finals when they meet the Saints in Round 17.

Mathematically not locked in yet, but it would take quite a lot for the Eagles to miss out on their first finals series in the EFNL.

The run home

 R16: Montrose (A)

 R17: North Ringwood (H)                                                                                                              

R18: Lilydale (A)

Predicted Finish: 4th 

5. North Ringwood

30 points (7 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw), 92.47 per cent

Two-points we didn’t expect the Saints to walk away with on Saturday. Alongside Bayswater’s surprise loss to Croydon, it was a fantastic weekend for all North Ringwood fans. With the draw, they take out the factor of percentage which was their biggest worry considering the three sides around them have significantly better percentages.

It’s their spot to lose now, a win against Bayswater on Saturday would almost seal the deal. Lose that one, and it leaves the door open for the three sides below.

They’ve been wonderful at home so they’ll back themselves against the Devils in Round 18 if the fifth spot came to that. But it’s two big tests away from home in the next two games that will really see where they’re at. 

The run home

 R16: Bayswater (A)

 R17: Beaconsfield (A)                                                                                                                             

R18: Wantirna South (H)

Predicted Finish: 5th  

6.Mooroolbark

24 points (6 wins, 9 losses), 111.59 per cent

A season of what if’s and missed opportunities for the Mustangs. Four very close losses in their matches against Beaconsfield and Bayswater will ultimately cost them.

A great percentage means there’s a glimmer of hope. But despite sitting sixth, the Mustangs probably have the smallest chance of actually making it from here out of the three sides on six wins due to the sides they play on the run home. 

A loss to undefeated South Belgrave and a North Ringwood this weekend would officially rule them out of the running.

The run home

 R16: South Belgrave (H)

 R17: Mitcham (A)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Montrose (A)

Predicted Finish: 8th 

7. Bayswater

24 points (6 wins, 9 losses), 100.29 per cent

The Croydon loss is a huge blow to Bayswater’s finals chances. Would have tipped them to make it before this weekend but they’ve now given North Ringwood the power of their own destiny, with their draw pushing them six points ahead.

Season on the line this weekend when they host North Ringwood. Lose and they’re officially done. A win would put them two points behind the five with another crucial clash against the Devils who would also presumably be sitting on seven wins. 

Relying on a lot with little wiggle room for error… All they can do for now is focus on defeating North Ringwood on Saturday, otherwise, they can start organising their holiday plans for September.

The run home

 R16: North Ringwood (H)

 R17: Wantirna South (A)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Mitcham (H)

Predicted Finish: 6th 

8. Wantirna South

 24 points (6 wins, 9 losses), 91.76 per cent

The Devils have been stranded on six wins for quite some time now. With winless Lilydale up next, they should finally get to seven but still feels like they’re a long way off finals pace.

Win all three of their remaining games, including two eight-point games against Bayswater and North Ringwood, mean they can still sneak in. Tipping on form, you would be brave to pick them to win all three of those games. 

Just need to find a way to win!

The run home

 R16: Lilydale (A)

 R17: Bayswater (H)                                                                                                                             

R18: North Ringwood (A)

Predicted Finish: 7th 

9. Croydon

20 points (5 wins, 10 losses), 78.68 per cent

They certainly haven’t thrown in the towel, which is great to see, fantastic win on the weekend against Bayswater

Percentage however is a killer for the Blues. The one-game gap between them and the three sides above them means it’s basically a two-game gap.

Have been capable of pulling off upsets but with the top three sides to come in their final three games… Asking too much from the Blues here.

The run home

 R16: Mitcham (A)

 R17: Montrose (H)                                                                                                                                   

R18: South Belgrave (H)

Predicted Finish: 9th 

10. Lilydale

0 points (0 wins, 15 losses), 43.92 per cent

They would have known for quite some time now that they would be taking the drop at the end of the season.

No easy games in their remaining three of the season so hard to see where a win comes from. 

The run home

 R16: Wantirna South (H)

 R17: South Belgrave (A)                                                                                                                                

R18: Beaconsfield (H)

Predicted Finish: 10th 

Division One Predicted First Week of the Finals:

BYE: South Belgrave

Qualifying Final (2v3): Mitcham v Montrose @Tormore Reserve

Elimination Final (4v5): Beaconsfield v North Ringwood @Tormore Reserve

Division Two Run Home

  1. Boronia

56 points (14 wins, 1 loss), 206.07 per cent

Minor Premiership locked up on the weekend, after their win against Templestowe. 

Top of the ladder in Division Two means the Hawks will have a bye in the first week of the finals. 

Their final game against Mulgrave sparks interest, but only based around the Lions, who may be in the position of needing to win to make the top five. 

Very similar position to the Saints in Division One, the best side in the division but can they continue this run into September?

The run home

 R16: Ringwood (A)

 R17: Upper Ferntree Gully (H)                                                                                            

R18: Mulgrave (A)

Projected Finish: 1st 

2. Waverley Blues

40 points (10 wins, 5 losses), 148.71 per cent

That was the tough one they just had to win! Defeating the Jets means the Blues are in pole position to finish with the double chance. 

Play three of the bottom four sides on the run-home, all away games. Should win all three, but all three sides on their day can pull off an upset so must not take anyone for granted.

Three wins with their superior percentage guarantees second.

Two wins will still be enough since Templestowe and Heathmont play each other in Round 18. 

It’s in their hands now, just have to keep winning.

The run home

 R16: Knox (A)

 R17: The Basin (A)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Ringwood (A)

Projected Finish: 2nd 

3. Templestowe

40 points (10 wins, 5 losses), 132.45 per cent

Tough fortnight for the Dockers.

Key personnel missing is my biggest concern for their top three chances. They take on the Rams this weekend, who will be desperate for four points.  

Despite having 19 scoring shots less than the Hawks on the weekend, the Dockers’ percentage wasn’t overly affected due to Boronia’s inaccuracy. That may mean something by Round 18 if the Dockers and Jets finish on the same amount of points. 

That final game of the season against Heathmont more than likely decides the third spot on the ladder.

The run home

 R16: East Burwood (H)

 R17: Knox (A)                                                                                                                          

R18: Heathmont (H)

Projected Finish: 4th    

4. Heathmont

40 points (10 wins, 5 losses), 122.71 per cent

Almost identical position to Templestowe’s, also missing key players.

The round 17 game against Mulgrave looks a lot tougher than it did a month ago, with the Lions holding onto the fifth spot. Percentage took a hit on the weekend in their loss to the Waverley Blues, so the Jets may need to win all three of their games on the run home to secure the double chance.

They’ll be hoping the Rams do them a favour by knocking off the Dockers this weekend.

The run home

 R16: The Basin (A)

 R17: Mulgrave (H)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Templestowe (A)

Projected Finish: 3rd  

5.Mulgrave

32 points (8 wins, 7 losses), 105.67 per cent

The big winners in Division Two this week were the Lions.

In an eight-point game which was essentially an elimination final, Mulgrave knocked off Ringwood. Meanwhile, 15 minutes down the road, the Falcons pulled off an upset many didn’t see coming against the Rams.

Should beat Upper Ferntree Gully this weekend… but that’s when things get interesting. Heathmont and Boronia in the final two weeks means they’re really going to have to earn that last spot. The jets playing for a double chance, while the Hawks have already locked up the top-spot, so they’ll have way more to play for, possible upset win?

Win one of their last three and they’ll almost certainly miss. 

Two wins, and they’ll be relying on the Rams to either lose two of three or lose at least one and hope they have a better percentage. 

Three wins and the only way they miss is if the Rams win all three and finish with a higher percentage

Potential to boost their percentage this weekend – Maybe a deciding factor for the top five.  

The run home

 R16: Upper Ferntree Gully (H)

 R17: Heathmont (A)                                                                                                                          

R18: Boronia (H)

Projected Finish: 6th 

6. East Burwood

32 points (8 wins, 7 losses), 103.24 per cent

Costly, costly loss. We had pencilled that one down as a win when predicting the outcomes of their remaining matches.

What it now means for the Rams – They’ll be relying on how the Lions finish the year just as much as their own results. They have the potential to win all three of their remaining games but after the loss on the weekend, that certainly is far from a guarantee.

Same scenarios apply to the Rams as they do to the Lions above. If both clubs finish on the same amount of wins, percentage will decide who makes it and who misses. 

Focusing on this weekend first, if they can pull off a win against the Dockers, they’ll be the ultimate frontrunners to finish fifth with a much easier run final two weeks of the season.

The run home

 R16: Templestowe (A)

 R17: Ringwood (H)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Upper Ferntree Gully (A)

Projected Finish: 5th 

7. Ringwood

28 points (7 wins, 8 losses), 117.37 per cent

Besides having a strong percentage, everything seems to be against the Redbacks now. Tough run home, playing the top-two sides as well as East Burwood. 

The best opportunity of making it from here is to win out while having both Mulgrave and East Burwood drop at least one game each. In that hypothetical scenario, they would make it based on percentage.

They’ve proved this year that they can pull off upsets, defeating both Boronia and Templestowe. They’ll need to do it again if they’re to have any chance of finishing in the five. 

The run home

 R16: Boronia (H)

 R17: East Burwood (A)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Waverley Blues (H)

Projected Finish: 7th 

8. The Basin

16 points (4 wins, 11 losses), 73.96 per cent

Knox’s win over East Burwood on the weekend means The Basin isn’t officially safe from double relegation yet. They do have a 13 per cent gap on Knox, so it’s important for the Bears’ sake that they aren’t blown away in either of their next two games.

If they go into Round 18, one win ahead of the Falcons, they might still be okay even if they lose that final game, depending on both sides percentages. 

The run home

 R16: Heathmont (H)

 R17: Waverley Blues (H)                                                                                                                    

R18: Knox (H)

Projected Finish: 8th 

9. Knox

12 points (3 wins, 12 losses), 60.41 per cent

The best win of the year for the Falcons means the club still has a chance of survival in Division Two this year. 

Similar to The Basin, the last thing they want is to suffer a big loss in the next two weeks. Either need a win in their next two games or have The Basin lose a significant amount of their percentage before the final game of the year out at Batterham Reserve.

The run home

 R16: Waverley Blues (H)

 R17: Templestowe (H)         

R18: The Basin (A)

10. Upper Ferntree Gully

4 points (1 win, 14 losses), 39.05 per cent

Been a difficult year for Upper Ferntree Gully. Will look to finish the year out strongly but they take on the top side along with two sides that will use those games as an opportunity to boost their percentage. 

The run home

 R16: Mulgrave (A)

 R17: Boronia (A) R18: East Burwood (H)

Predicted Finish: 10th 

Division Two Predicted First Week of the Finals:

BYE: Boronia

Qualifying Final (2v3): Waverley Blues v Heathmont @Walker Park

Elimination Final (4v5): Templestowe v East Burwood @Walker Park

Division Three Run Home

  1. Donvale

56 points (14 wins, 1 loss), 201.62 per cent

The Minor Premiership is calling, two and a half games and percentage clear on top.

Their opponent in the first week in the finals is all but locked in, with Ferntree Gully in clear second place. They meet once more time in the Home and Away season before finals, with the ultimate possibility of playing each other a total of five times in the one year!

The run home

 R16: Oakleigh District 

 R17: Ferntree Gully                                                                                                                               

R18: Coldstream

Projected Finish: 1st 

2. Ferntree Gully

44 points (11 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw), 147.86 per cent

Ferntree Gully will almost certainly earn themselves the double chance this season. The draw on the weekend doesn’t do a whole lot either way. One win in their remaining three games will be enough to finish second.

Same as the Magpies, they’ll be looking forward to testing themselves out against Donvale one last time before the finals series.

The run home

 R16: Silvan (H)

 R17: Donvale (H)                                                                                                                                 

R18: Whitehorse (A)

Projected Finish: 2nd 

3. Silvan

34 points (8 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw), 102.07 per cent

The Cats added a bit of percentage to their name after their big win on the weekend. 

Since both Fairpark and Warrandyte have had draws this season too, that percentage comes in handy. Could lose all their remaining games and still make it comfortably.

Having defeated Oakleigh District twice this season, Silvan will certainly be happy with that match-up. The bigger task is seeing how they perform against Ferntree Gully this weekend, a team they will have to beat if they are to contend for a premiership this year.

The run home

 R16: Ferntree Gully (A)

 R17: Warrandyte (A)                                                                                                                                

R18: Fairpark (H)

Projected Finish: 3rd 

4. Oakleigh District

32 points (8 wins, 7 losses), 97.50 per cent

Did exactly what they needed to on the weekend. 

Hard to see anyone beating Donvale at the moment, but will go in favourites in their last two games. They’re so close to their first ever finals series in the EFNL but they’ll be cautious of their last two opponents who are needing to win out to make it.

One more win… all they need. 

The run home

 R16: Donvale (A)

 R17: Fairpark (A) R18: Warrandyte (H)

Projected Finish: 4th 

5. Fairpark

22 points (5 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw), 80.41 per cent

The draw keeps the Lions mathematically alive.

They’ll need a flawless run, while also hopping Oakleigh District lose all three of their run-home. Essentially, they’re needing just too much to go right.

They’ve done enough to escape relegation talk but they’ll look back on their two losses to Coldstream this year as what inevitably cost them. 

The run home

 R16: Whitehorse (A)

 R17: Oakleigh District (H)                                                                                  

 R18: Silvan (A)

Projected Finish: 6th 

6. Warrandyte

22 points (5 wins, 9 losses, 1 draw), 76.79 per cent

Same boat as the Lions. 

Done enough to get out of the relegation discussion but still two and a half games behind fourth. Thire best hope is winning their next two while Oakleigh District loses their next two, setting up an exciting do-or-die mini–Elimination Final in Round 18.

A lot to ask for… player availability has made things tough for the Bloods all season. 

The run home

R16: Coldstream (A)

 R17: Silvan (H)                                                                                                                                 

R18: Oakleigh District (H)

Projected Finish: 5th 

7.Coldstream

16 points (4 wins, 11 losses), 66.20 per cent

The biggest game of the season for the Cougars comes in Round 17 when they take on the Pioneers. Most likely will decide who is relegated this season, depending on a couple of other results. 

Their percentage is the worse in the division, so needs to be at least one game clear of Whitehorse come the end of the season. 

An upset win this weekend at home would give them some extra wriggle room!

The run home

 R16: Warrandyte (H)

 R17: Whitehorse (H)                                                                       

 R18: Donvale (A)

Projected Finish: 7th 

8. Whitehorse

12 points (3 wins, 12 losses), 75.04 per cent

One win and the Pioneers can get out of the eighth position.

The issue however is their current form, seven losses in a row. As mentioned above, their Round 17 game against the Cougars is huge for the club, lose that one and they’ll most likely be back in Division Four come season 2024. 

Current form line is the biggest concern right now.

The run home

 R16: Fairpark (H)

 R17: Coldstream (A)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Ferntree Gully (H)

Projected Finish: 8th 

Division Three Predicted First Week of the Finals:

Semi Final 2 (1v2): Donvale v FTG @Jubilee Park

Semi Final 1 (3v4): Silvan v Oakleigh District @Jubilee Park

Division Four Run Home

  1. Kilsyth

42 points (10 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw), 173.95 per cent

Double chance is on the cards for the Cougars.

First or second, it won’t pay much difference besides the colour of shorts they wear come the first week of the finals. Potentially will play Surrey Park in back-to-back weeks, in Round 18 and the 1st Semi Final.

The run home

 R16: Scoresby (H)                                                                                                      

R17: Nunawading (H)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Surrey Park (A)

Projected Finish: 1st 

2. Surrey Park

38 points (9 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw), 193.28 per cent

Still all in the Panthers’ hands for a top-two finish this year. An extra game in hand over both Scoresby and Chirnside Park.

Beating Chirnside Park in two weeks’ time would ease any nerves but lose that one, they’ll have to travel to Pinks Reserve in search of a win to finish top two.

The run home

 R16: Forest Hill (H)

 R17: Chirnside Park (A)                                                                                                                                                                                                                 R18: Kilsyth (H)

Projected Finish: 2nd 

3. Scoresby

36 points (9 wins, 5 losses), 134.06 per cent

Double chance is almost out of the equation now… Could win their two remaining games and still finish third. 

Hypothetically can miss finals altogether if they lose both games including the Forest Hill clash, if the Zebras pull off an upset this weekend. 

Most likely outcome is still a date with Chirnside Park in the first Semi-Final.

The run home

 R16: Kilsyth (A)

 R17: Forest Hill (H)                                                                                                                                  

R18: BYE

Projected Finish: 3rd 

4. Chirnside Park

36 points (9 wins, 5 losses), 112.31 per cent

Everything seems to be ticking into gear for the Panthers now. Seven on the trot, they’ve just about locked themselves into finals now.

Should win at least one of their last two games which will be enough to feature in the post-season. Win both and they open up the possibility of a double chance, all depending on Surrey Park.

With the form they’re in, they know they can beat anyone, so they’ll be heading into a Semi-Final with a world of confidence. 

The run home

 R16: BYE

 R17: Surrey Park (H)                                                                                                                                   

R18: Nunawading (A)

Projected Finish: 4th 

5. Forest Hill

28 points (7 wins, 6 losses), 101.23 per cent

Once having a three-game lead on Chirnside Park, feels like a long, long time ago now. With Chirnside’s win over Scoresby on the weekend, its virtually curtains closed on season 2023 for the Zebras.

Probably the only side they can realistically overtake from here is Scoresby, assuming Chirnside Park defeats Nunawading comfortably in the final round. The percentage gap means the Zebras would need to win all three remaining games and have either Scoresby or Chirnside drop both their games. 

We may be able to officially put a line through the Zebras this Saturday, as they head to Surrey Park. 

 The run home

 R16: Surrey Park (A)

 R17: Scoresby (A) R18: Croydon North MLOC (H)

Projected Finish: 5th 

6. Nunawading

8 points (2 wins, 11 losses), 52.79 per cent

Frank Silanitri and his men have made improvements on 2022, but they’ll be disappointed if they finish with just two wins for the year. The effort is there against some of the top sides but sustaining it for four quarters has been an issue.

The run home

 R16: Croydon North MLOC (H)

 R17: Kilsyth (A)                                                                                                                            

       R18: Chirnside Park (H)

Projected Finish: 6th 

7. Croydon North MLOC

0 points (0 wins, 14 losses), 44.07 per cent

Tough season for the KangaRams, despite a couple more positive results in the last two weekends. Would imagine that the club have had their eyes on this Round 16 clash against the Lions for quite some time now, may be the last chance to pinch a win.

The run home

 R16: Nunawading (A)

 R17: BYE                                                                                                                                  

R18: Forest Hill (A)

Projected Finish: 7th 

Division Four Predicted First Week of the Finals:

Semi Final 2 (1v2): Kilsyth v Surrey Park @East Ringwood Reserve

Semi Final 1 (3v4): Scoresby v Chirnside Park @East Ringwood Reserve

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